The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy has been too slow to keep global temperature increases within the threshold needed to avert serious disaster.
This is one of the main findings of the 12th PricewaterhouseCoopers Annual Power and Utilities Survey, which is based on the views of the top management of 72 power and utility companies around the world.
The global aim is to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, which are largely the result of burning fossil fuels, quickly enough so that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere peaks at 450 parts per million. This would limit the average global temperature increase to 2degrees Celsius, a level at which changes could be managed.
But with electricity demand projected to increase from 17 200 tera-watt-hours in 2009 to 31 700TWH in 2035, this is unlikely. Fossil fuels currently generate 66% of this electricity and those surveyed said they were aiming to reduce it to 57% by 2030. Renewables and gas would make up the rest.
Given these responses, the survey concludes that the forecast fuel-mix scenario will result in “a level of emissions consistent with long-term average temperature increases of more than 3.5degrees Celsius.
According to the International Energy Agency, this will have serious consequences: droughts, floods, sea level rising by more than 2m, changes in rainfall patterns and heat waves. These would severely affect food production and increase the prevalence of human diseases and mortality rates.
Mail & Guardian June 22 to 28